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NFL draft season is in high gear, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the center of attention, as they hold this year's top overall selection.
With the all-star game circuit in the rear-view mirror, teams and prospects alike have turned their attention toward this week's NFL Scouting Combine, where workout results could have a significant impact on certain players' draft stock—for better or worse.
It's likely a three-horse race when it comes to Tampa Bay's targets with the No. 1 overall pick, but it's still possible they could trade down from the selection. It's also possible they could trade back into the first round from their early pick in the second round, in an attempt to snag a player who might be slipping down the board.
For this particular draft board, I'll give three targets for each of the following scenarios:
- No. 1 overall pick
- Trade down from No. 1 overall
- Trade back into first round
Who should be the Bucs' top targets in each of those situations? Here's my take.
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Mason Foster struggled with injuries last season and his contract has expired, which could leave the Bucs looking for a new starter at middle linebacker. One of the best fits for what they need is likely to be available in the late-first round, which could cause the Bucs to move up and secure his services.
Eric Kendricks brings everything to the table required of a Tampa 2 middle linebacker, from instincts and technique against the run to speed and flexibility in coverage. Kendricks flies to the ball, is a sure tackler, and has the athleticism to turn and get back to the deep middle.
Even when fully healthy, Foster wasn't the best fit in the middle for a Tampa 2 team. Despite being a rookie, Kendricks would be an immediate upgrade, should the Bucs pull the trigger and trade back into the first round.
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If the Bucs are looking to land a potential franchise offensive tackle outside of the top 10 overall picks, they should keep a close eye on Ereck Flowers as the first round winds down.
Flowers combines a massive frame with solid strength and athletic ability, enjoying great success against some of the better pass rushers in the country in 2014. His technique and balance need work, but he has the physical tools to start from Day 1 and develop into a Pro Bowl player.
There are a few tackles the Bucs could be following as potential trade-up targets in the latter part of the first round, but Flowers should top the list.
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Should the Bucs be interested in moving back into the late-first round, there are a few names they should be targeting, should they slip down the draft board.
Bud Dupree is a naturally gifted athlete who wasn't always put in the best position to succeed while at Kentucky, but was still able to flash the tools of a play-making defender and a first-round talent at the next level. Dupree was asked to drop into coverage quite often as an outside linebacker, but I think his best fit in the NFL is with his hand in the dirt as a 4-3 defensive end.
Questions about Dupree's best fit at the NFL level could cause him to slip a bit in the first round, along with the fact that this year's drop of edge players in extremely deep. If he falls far enough, the Bucs should think hard about moving up from the early-second round to grab him.
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Another potential target if the Bucs move down from the top pick and are targeting a pass rusher, Randy Gregory is an intriguing prospect with plenty of potential.
Lovie Smith's loves tall defensive ends with plenty of length, and Gregory definitely fits the bill in that regard. At 6'6", 245 pounds, he's a bit on the light side for a 4-3 defensive end, but he's got the frame to add some bulk.
Gregory's value is more about what he's capable of than what he's already proven on tape, as his technique and consistency have yet to catch up to his natural athletic ability. It wouldn't be a shock for Smith and general manager Jason Licht to fall in love with Gregory's raw skills, making him the pick if they trade down.
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If the Bucs trade down from the No. 1 overall pick but don't go the pass rusher route, they could instead choose to address their needs along the offensive line. Brandon Scherff is considered by most to be this year's top prospect up front, and could immediately elevate a unit that struggled mightily in 2014.
Scherff projects best as a guard at the next level, but he could easily develop into a productive tackle, as well. The Bucs will be looking for new starters at both guard and tackle on the right side, and the former Hawkeye would be a plug-and-play starter from Day 1 at either spot.
It's definitely worth considering that no matter who is under center for Tampa Bay in 2015, the offensive line will need to see significant improvement if the quarterback is to have any success. Scherff would go a long way toward ensuring that success.
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If the Bucs end up trading down from the top overall pick, there are quite a few players they could target in the top 10 picks. At the top of that list should be the top talent in a deep class of pass rushers in Florida's Dante Fowler.
Fowler was as disruptive as any edge player in the country last year, routinely camping out in opposing backfields and making life miserable for offensive tackles on a weekly basis. At 6'2", 261 pounds, Fowler is a bit shorter than Lovie Smith seems to like his defensive ends, but he's built thickly enough to hold his own his own against the run, with enough explosiveness and technique to get after the passer.
The Tampa 2 simply must have consistent pressure from the front four in order to be successful, and if they move down from the top pick, improving their lackluster pass rush should be their prime objective.
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It's still possible the Bucs could decide that neither of the top quarterbacks is worth the risk, choosing instead to simply draft the best overall player on the board. In this year's draft class, that player in Leonard Williams.
With so much money already committed to Gerald McCoy, many Bucs fans might scoff at the idea of spending the top overall pick on a defensive tackle, especially considering how well Clinton McDonald played in 2014. But when you're 2-14, stocking your roster with as much pure talent as possible is key to the rebuilding effort.
Williams is a disruptive force who could line up next to McCoy and wreak havoc on opposing backfields across the NFL. An impressive athlete for his size—6'5", 300 pounds—Williams give the Bucs yet another young building block on defense, which could entice defensively minded head coach Lovie Smith.
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If the Bucs aren't comfortable with the off-field concerns surrounding Jameis Winston, Oregon's Marcus Mariota would be their next-best choice, and he's not a bad consolation prize.
Mariota carries his own level of risk, though his has to do with his on-field exploits. Oregon quarterbacks in general have been known for racking up impressive numbers in college but flopping at the next level, and many fear Mariota will simply be the next name on that list.
It's hard to argue with them, but Mariota is a far better pocket passer than many give him credit for, and though he's capable of making plays with his legs, he doesn't make a habit of leaving the pocket too early instead of working through his progressions.
The Bucs will be taking a sizable risk with either of the top quarterbacks. If they prefer to take that risk on the field rather than off it, Mariota will be their man.
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Many Bucs fans have already grown tired of the debate as to which quarterback their team should select with the top overall pick, but the back-and-forth isn't likely to go away anytime soon.
For now, Winston is the best fit for the Bucs. His experience in a pro-style offense is his greatest strength, along with his ability to engineer comeback victories with his competitiveness and knack for making the clutch throws. His mechanics need work—a long delivery and inconsistent footwork, for the most part—but when it comes to the on-field product, Winston is more prepared to lead an NFL team to victory in the near future than Mariota.
The big caveat with Winston is obviously his off-field concerns, which Tampa Bay's decision-makers will be digging into considerably before making him the face of their franchise. They'll have to ask some tough questions and feel comfortable with the answers, and be confident in their ability to provide a stable environment for Winston to grow and mature.
If the Bucs can get to that point with Winston, he should be the pick.
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