Matt Slocum/Associated Press
New England Patriots running back Shane Vereen may be great at catching passes out of the backfield, but the 26-year-old's timing is lousy.
As Vereen prepares to enter free agency, he faces not only the recent devaluation of the running back position overall, but also the fact that this year's crop of free agents at the position is the deepest in years.
Add it all together, and it equals a very uncertain future for a player who only last month was celebrating a Super Bowl victory.
Just a couple of weeks ago, it appeared that Vereen, who caught 11 passes in that win over the Seattle Seahawks, may have let that performance go to his head. According to Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald , a source indicated Vereen was angling for a new deal that averaged $5 million a season.
Granted, Vereen himself didn't waste any time squashing that rumor:
That's good, because as Howe writes, the chances of a return to New England at $5 million a season are slim to none:
Problematically for Vereen, who would like to remain with the Patriots, the franchise has a history of not paying backs. Kevin Faulk's largest deal with the team was for six years and $15.05 million, and Laurence Maroney got $9 million over five years as a first-round pick in 2006. The Patriots barely offered Danny Woodhead anything more than the minimum before he bolted to the Chargers two years ago, and they weren't willing to match LeGarrette Blount's two-year, $3.95 million contract from the Steelers last year. Blount returned on a two-year, $2.35 million deal in 2014, but the second year of the deal is incentive-heavy.
Frankly, the odds of a return to Beantown for Vereen just aren't good, period. It's no knock on Vereen as a player. The four-year veteran was in contention for MVP honors in Super Bowl XLIX. Vereen set career highs in carries, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards and total touchdowns in 2014.
| 2011 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 | - | - | - |
| 2012 | 13 | 62 | 251 | 4.0 | 3 | 8 | 149 | 1 |
| 2013 | 8 | 44 | 208 | 4.7 | 1 | 47 | 427 | 3 |
| 2014 | 16 | 96 | 391 | 4.1 | 2 | 52 | 447 | 5 |
Per NFL.com
However, as Howe pointed out, the harsh reality is the Patriots just don't pay running backs. In recent years, when your contract is up, so is your time with the team, unless you're willing to come back on its terms.
And the Patriots' terms aren't anywhere near $5 million a season.
Odds are Vereen is going to hit the open market on March 10. And when he does, Vereen won't be lonely.
| 1. | DeMarco Murray | DAL | 27 |
| 2. | C.J. Spiller | BUF | 27 |
| 3. | Ryan Mathews | SD | 27 |
| 4. | Mark Ingram | NO | 25 |
| 5. | Justin Forsett | BAL | 29 |
| 6. | Frank Gore | SF | 31 |
| 7. | Shane Vereen | NE | 25 |
| 8. | Stevan Ridley | NE | 26 |
| 9. | Roy Helu | WAS | 26 |
| 10. | Reggie Bush | DET | 29 |
Per Rotoworld
The running back market in free agency this year is loaded—with running backs surrounded by question marks. Even reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray raises an eyebrow or two after carrying the ball over 390 times in 2014.
Vereen is no exception in that regard. Yes, Vereen is coming off career highs across the board and at 26, he's one of the younger backs available.
But on a per-touch basis, Vereen's numbers were down by over half a yard in 2014, and last season was the first time in four tries that Vereen has made it through a 16-game season. He's also never carried the ball 100 times or had even 150 total touches in a single year.
Vereen's a solid third-down back, but that's what he is: a third-down back.
And it's as a third-down back where Vereen will find work in 2015. Maybe it will be back with the Patriots, although that isn't going to make Vereen's accountant happy.
More likely, it will be elsewhere. A landing spot like the Cleveland Browns or Chicago Bears could mean more money in Vereen's bank account, but it isn't going to do a whole lot for his chances of making it to a second straight Super Bowl.
And in neither scenario (or any scenario, for that matter) is Vereen going to sniff $5 million a year.
Like I said, Vereen 's a good, young player. But in today's NFL, heading into a free-agent market awash with tailbacks, a part-time back just isn't going to generate the type of demand Vereen is likely hoping for.
Like I said, good player—rotten timing.
Gary Davenport is an NFL Analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPManor .
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