The Philadelphia Eagles pulled off one of the most shocking trades in recent NFL history Tuesday evening, as the Eagles sent running back LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills for linebacker Kiko Alonso.
Alonso, just 24, was the Pro Football Writers Association's Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2013, as the second-round pick collected 159 tackles, four interceptions, two fumble recoveries and two sacks. But a torn ACL in July 2014 cost him his entire second season.
According to CBS Sports' Jared Dubin, the Bills were considering playing Alonso, an inside linebacker, at outside linebacker under new head coach Rex Ryan. That, his recent injury, Buffalo's depth at inside linebacker and Ryan's ability to develop defensive players on his own could be why the Bills were so willing to part with such a promising player.
To casual observers, Kelly appears to have lost his mind. What kind of a head coach gives up on the leading rusher in franchise history after one down year that can largely be attributed to the struggles of the offensive line early in the season?
McCoy is just 26. He's never had a major injury in the National Football League. He's at worst the sixth-best back in the game, behind the likes of Jamaal Charles, Le'Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray.
But Kelly proved last offseason that he isn't your typical head coach. Cutting DeSean Jackson, a three-time Pro Bowl receiver in his prime, was unprecedented. But moving on from yet another superstar offensive player just a year ago?
This is something no other coach has ever done.
If Alonso turns back into a superstar, Kelly will look like a genius. But if Alonso never fully recovers from his ACL injury, and it's worth noting it's the second since his college days, Kelly will look like a fool.
Now how McCoy does in Buffalo is a different story, and the Eagles don't care about that anymore. How will the team's running game function in 2015 without their All-Pro tailback from 2011 and 2013?
Well, for starters, Kelly clearly believes the Eagles rushing attack is more about the system and a dominant offensive line than the running back. I agree. Let's look at the Eagles' offensive line rankings in 2013, during McCoy's best season, compared with 2014, McCoy's down season.
| Year | LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| 2013 | 11.4 | 42.4 | 18.2 | 22.9 | 11.0 |
| 2014 | 15.8 | 17.4 | 15.5 | 5.0 | 6.8 |
Pro Football Focus
The Eagles still had an effective offensive line in 2014. While I wouldn't consider it quite as effective as Pro Football Focus' rankings, it was probably one of the three or four best in the NFL, even with the injuries (and Lane Johnson's suspension). That's what makes McCoy's drop from 2013, when he led the league with 1607 rushing yards, to 2014 so alarming.
Now let's compare McCoy in 2013 and 2014 to the other running backs on the roster in 2013 and 2014 to see if the decline affected just McCoy or the rest of the team too.
Look below at the numbers for the rest of the Eagles' running backs in 2014. While Sproles and Polk had much smaller sample sizes, there were times by the end of the season where McCoy was the third running back I wanted on the team to carry the ball when the Eagles needed a yard.
| Player | Carries | Yards | YPC | TDs | Missed Tackles |
| LeSean McCoy 2014 | 312 | 1319 | 4.2 | 5 | 40 |
| Sproles & Polk 2014 | 103 | 501 | 4.9 | 10 | 19 |
| LeSean McCoy 2013 | 314 | 1607 | 5.1 | 9 | 57 |
| Brown & Polk 2013 | 86 | 412 | 4.8 | 6 | 11 |
Pro Football Focus
Sproles always ran straight up the middle, and his 5.8 yards per carry is tremendous, even considering his small sample size. Polk clearly took over the duties as the main goal-line running back, which is why his yards-per-carry average was "only" 3.8.
Even in the beginning of the season, when McCoy had games such as 19 for 22, 10 for 17 and 12 for 19 as a runner, Sproles and Polk found a way to gain yardage. Obviously, their sample size was smaller, but a look at the film also shows that McCoy just wasn't finding the holes as much as he did in 2013. His broken tackles dropped dramatically, and on a per-carry basis, he was the team's third-best running back in 2014.
In fact, he ranked last in the league among all running backs, minimum 250 touches, in yards per touch (4.3). That's a major red flag for a player whose offensive line was the best in the game at run blocking.
Now, McCoy is just 26, but he's also played six seasons and touched the ball 1808 times in his career. While McCoy probably has another two or three solid seasons of production in his career, it's better to get rid of a player a year early than a year late. Oh, and for what it's worth, McCoy will head to a Buffalo Bills squad that ranked as the NFL's worst run-blocking unit in 2014, per Pro Football Focus.
It's a unit that is so desperate for competent play that their organization brought in 32-year-old guard Richie Incognito, who didn't play at all in 2014 after his involvement in Bullygate and allowed six sacks in eight games in 2013, per Pro Football Focus.
If Kelly can swing a trade for his former college quarterback, Marcus Mariota, his running game will improve even more in 2015, as Mariota's legs and ability to run a shotgun-style offense will open up even more holes for the backs.
Realistically, expect Kelly to use a three- or even four-headed running back combination in 2015. Darren Sproles is the only running back currently on the team's roster, but restricted free-agent Chris Polk will likely be back.
The Eagles have been linked to former Bills running back C.J. Spiller in free agency. After Kelly tried to trade for Spiller before trading for Sproles last offseason, according to CSN Philadelphia's Geoff Mosher (h/t CBS Sports' Will Brinson), don't be surprised if he brings in the former top-10 pick on a multiyear deal.
Spiller may be 28 by the time the season rolls around, but he's carried just 663 times during his career with an impressive 5.0 yards-per-carry average. He also has ability as a returner and a receiver, and there's no doubt Kelly sees Spiller's 2012 season (1244 yards on 6.0 yards per carry) as the potential he'd be able to unlock.
But Spiller isn't a north-south runner, and dancing to the outside too much could be one of the big reasons why Kelly chose to move on from McCoy.
Another option through free agency is former Heisman winner Mark Ingram, a first-round pick by the New Orleans Saints in 2011. Ingram was part of the Saints' three-headed running back during his first three seasons, but he set a career-high with 226 carries for 964 yards and nine scores in 2014. His 4.3 yards per carry may not look spectacular, but he averaged 2.4 yards per carry before contact, per Pro Football Focus.
By comparison, McCoy averaged 2.1. Ingram was also recruited to Alabama by Ed Marynowitz, who was promoted by to vice president of player personnel after the season. He's just 25 and would be a nice power option to pair with Sproles and Polk.
Yet another possibility is a rookie through the draft. With many calling this the best running back class in history, don't be surprised if Kelly looks to acquire one of a number of talented backs.
From potential first-round choices such as Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon to mid-round selections like Duke Johnson, Ameer Abdullah and Tevin Coleman, Kelly could plug in a number of different players behind the game's best run-blocking offensive line.
Bleacher Report's NFL draft expert, Matt Miller, says Abdullah fits best in a zone-style offense, like the one the Eagles run. Miller also calls Abdullah a "surprisingly powerful runner" and a "home run hitter" with a ping-pong-ball ability to bounce around between the tackles and make plays.
Abdullah possesses tremendous athletic ability, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs in the vertical jump and the 98th percentile in the 20-yard shuttle, according to Mock Draftable (h/t Rotoworld's Josh Norris).
Even if the Eagles make a move for Mariota, hypothetically surrendering pick Nos. 20 and 52 to move up to pick No. 1 or 2, don't be surprised if Kelly drafts a running back with his top remaining pick.
Regardless, the success of the Eagles running game is so much more predicated on the offensive line than the running back. That's not to say McCoy was a bad fit or wouldn't still rush for 1200 yards in 2015. But whether the Eagles use a three- or four-headed combination in 2015, this is still a run-first team that won't miss a beat on the ground in 2015.
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